Weekly Triggers (Apr 19 – Apr 23)

weekly 1 Weekly Triggers (Apr 19   Apr 23)

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·        Market weakness continued during the previous week across sectors·        Sensex lost 759 points and Nifty 217 points as all sectors, other than pharmaceuticals, ended in the red
·        Technology stocks came under pressure after Q4 results·        While IT profits grew on YOY basis, they were down on QOQ basis. That could be an overhang in this week
·        COVID cases scale 2.50 lakhs per day threatening more lockdowns·        This has been the overhang as the gap till inoculation gathers momentum could be the toughest part
·        Markets will react to HDFC Bank Q4 results announced on Saturday·        While profits grew 22% and NPAs were under control, the falling effective yields on loans remains a worry
·        The coming week could see higher volatility being a truncated week·        With a trading holiday on 21 April, and VIX still tentative, we could see a spike in volatility in the coming week
·        Big earnings are expected to be announced in the coming week·        Big Q4 names include ICICI Bank, HCL Tech, Nestle, ACC, ICICI Pru, Rallis, Tata Elxsi and M&M Finance

 

·        FII flows critical in the coming week after Rs.2597 crore selling in Apr-21·        While there is no runaway selling, the lack of FPI interest is making this into a typical sell-on-rises market trend
·        The INR was under pressure and the RBI is likely to allow it to weaken·        The rupee liquidity via GSAPs was a signal for the INR to weaken and that could hit the rupee further this week
·        In IPO action, Macrotech (Lodha Group) lists on 19 April·        The listing is expected to be tepid with weak markets and also due to the tepid response to the IPO
·        Nifty put/call accumulation range shifts lower to 14,300-14,800·        With falling markets, the F&O traders are widening their range and also betting on lower levels on the Nifty
·        Macro data this week includes bank loans, deposits and forex reserves·        While an improvement in C/D credit ratio stays elusive, forex chest becomes critical in light of rising imports
·        COVID recovery rate has fallen from 91% to 87% in last few weeks·        These rising fatalities could be a reason for stringent lockdowns, which could get extended beyond 30 April
·        Key data points from the US macros will be watched this week·        Focus on US jobless claims, existing home sales, new home sales, MBA mortgage apps and Markit PMI
·        Key data points from Europe and Asia will be keenly watched·        Focus on ECB interest rates, consumer confidence, PMI, Japan industrial output, JIBUN PMI and March inflation

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