Weekly Trigger – Audust 17th – August 21st

Triggers Weekly 2 Weekly Trigger   Audust 17th   August 21st

Trigger for the Week

How will it impact?

  • India COVID afflictions cross 26 lakhs averaging over 50,000 per day
  • Despite recovery rate touching 68%, the level of fresh afflictions need to come down for markets to feel safe
  • Higher inflation is likely to put pressure on financial stocks
  • Banks are likely to be cautious in the week on fears that CPI inflation at 6.93% may led to rates status quo
  • RBI dividend at Rs.57,182 crore disappoints the market
  • This clearly means that the actual fiscal deficit for FY21 would be closer to the 7% mark
  • All eyes will be on the MPC minutes announcement on 20 August
  • The MPC minutes are likely to give a clear picture of what the members think about the rate trajectory
  • 47 of 50 Nifty company results point to the worst quarter in years
  • This has been an outcome of weak demand and supply chain constraints and could spook markets
  • Buffett’s appetite for gold is likely to be seen as negative for equities
  • Buffett has moved out of banks in the last quarter and into gold, a signal of caution in equities worldwide
  • FII flows continue to be robust even as domestics are sellers
  • FIIs continue to be net buyers in August on the back of value buying in select sectors ahead of revival
  • Equity fund flows negative in July hints at stress on MF managers
  • This could have a larger impact on mid cap and small cap stocks that are widely owned by Indian mutual funds
  • All eyes to shift to the AGR verdict on 17th of August
  • The Supreme Court reserve its judgment and asked for more details, but could be crucial for telecom stocks
  • Even as US-China tensions simmer, the week could be about stimulus
  • Both China and the US are planning a massive stimulus program and that could be a boost for market liquidity
  • Trade data signals pressure on exports in July
  • This is likely to be a cautious signal as imports in July have risen faster than exports
  • IIP for consumer non-durables in user terms turns positive
  • This is likely to be a signal that FMCG companies may be back in the reckoning in the coming week
  • FPIs return as net buyers in debt in a big way
  • This could be a big positive as a sign of risk-on money coming back into Indian markets
  • Markets will look for global data triggers from US, EU and China
  • US Housing starts, US building permits, API weekly crude oil stocks and Japan exports will be keenly watched

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