Weekly Triggers Feb 08

weekly 1 Weekly Triggers Feb 08

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·         Budget effect to stay positive after 4200 points rally in Sensex·         Budget positives like fiscal deficit transparency, bad bank, disinvestments and monetization to linger on
·         Nifty 15,000 and Sensex 51,000 to hold the key next week·         With Sensex 50,000 decisively taken out last week, the focus will be on target of above 15,000 on Nifty Futures
·         Analysts are expecting trader offloading after 9.6% returns·         This was one of the best index returns in a week and some market lightening could be on the cards
·         Big earnings slated to be announced during the coming week·         Market direction will be set by BPCL, Tata Steel, Adani SEZ, Eicher, Hindalco, Grasim, ITC, ONGC this week
·         FPIs bought over Rs.13,600 crore of equities in the last week·         While it was a turnaround from selling last week, the volumes indicate good deal of short covering support
·         FMCG division numbers of ITC will be on the radar this week·         With no new duties on cigarettes, the stock rallied 15% in a week and could react sharply to numbers
·         CPI inflation will be critical data point on 12 February·         Apart from a sharp fall in food inflation in Dec-20, the focus will be on the RBI full year target of 5.2%
·         Markets will expect better news from IIP numbers on 12 February·         Markets expect Dec-20 IIP to be better after the -1.9% contraction in Nov-20 and -3.6% in Oct-20
·         All eyes will be on the Bank Nifty this week, after the 17% rally·         Banks had some good news from the Budget and the Monetary Policy and will look to consolidate the rally
·         Markets will await the divestment timetable from the Niti Aayog·         Apart from direction on BPCL, CONCOR and SCI, markets will await cues on PSU bank and insurance cues too
·         Record low virus deaths combines 50 lakh inoculations in record time·         This is good news for the market that the worst of the health scare for the stock markets may be over
·         Options data suggest a range of 14,500 to 15,200 for the Nifty·         In the Budget week, Nifty decisively breached the upper end of the range, redefining a higher upper limit
·         Despite the sharp fall, VIX yet to recover fully from budget volatility·         VIX fell from 25.34 to 23.41 and this week will hope for VIX closer to 20 for downside risk to really subside
·         Major Global data points could also influence markets·         US MBA mortgages, Jan inflation, jobs data, Japan machine tool orders, China vehicle sales hold the key


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