Weekly Triggers FEB 15

weekly 2 1 Weekly Triggers FEB 15

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·         Nifty and Sensex in uncharted territory for the week·         Nifty above 15,100 and Sensex above 51,000 is open zone and could turn into a buy-on-dips market
·         Sharply lower inflation could hold interest in rate sensitives·         Banking stocks could see renewed interest after the CPI inflation at 4.06% makes accommodation certain
·         With quarterly earnings done, stock level triggers may not be around·         More than 95% of the NSE-500 companies have given out numbers, largely along expected lines
·         Two IPOs to drive market sentiment during the week·         The IPO of RailTel and Nureca will open during the week with both IPOs opening on Monday 15 February
·         The week will also see the listing of Brookfield REIT on 17 February·         This will be a good test of the appetite for REITs, which is emerging as an alternative asset class for investors
·         The markets are still offering some handful of earnings this week·         Companies like Nestle, Ambuja Cements, R Systems, Mahindra CIE, Jet and Binani results are expected
·         Trade data for January is expected to be announced this week·         The deficit figure is expected to be above $14 billion but the markets will await the export story in detail
·         FIIs infuse over Rs.39,400 crore into Indian equities in Jan and Feb·         This takes the total infusion in the fiscal year 2020-21 to well above the Rs.2 trillion mark on an overall basis
·         Coronavirus case ratio touches a new low as inoculation picks up·         With over 8 million inoculation in just two weeks the progress augurs well for control of the pandemic
·         Crude oil above $62/bbl in the Brent market could be a worry·         While the rally has been over 60% in 3 months, the worry is the impact on petrol prices and inflation
·         In terms of macro data points, the markets will await WPI inflation·         WPI will give a much better confirmation of who bears the brunt of inflation fall and implications for companies
·         Options data suggests upper range of 15,300 to 15,500 for Nifty·         A decisive breach of this range will be the key to the next leg of the rally in the stock markets
·         There are some key US data points to watch out this week·         These data points include retail sales, industrial output, FOMC minutes, jobless claims and housing starts
·         Key data points from Europe and Japan could also hold the key·         Major data to watch will be Europe IIP, EU GDP, ECB policy, Japan IIP, machinery orders and Japan inflation

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