Weekly Triggers (Mar 01 – Mar 05)

weekly Weekly Triggers (Mar 01   Mar 05)

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·        Markets will react to the positive GDP number at 0.4% for Q3·        While there are concerns on the base effect, the quick reaction is likely to be neutral towards GDP growth
·        Core sector growth at 0.1% hints at infra output at pre-COVID levels·        Markets are likely to celebrate the fact that the core sector has been in positive territory for 2 consecutive months
·        PLI announcement on IT hardware and pharma to be positive·        The government has laid out an outlay of Rs.20,000 crore for more indigenous output and that is positive
·        Listing of Heranba IPO will be a key trigger for the markets this week·        The issue was subscribed over 80 times and will be critical after the positive listing of RailTel and Nureca
·        Keep an eye on the VIX that spiked by 22% on Friday·        VIX near 29 is a short-term concern for the markets and could hint at further downsides
·        Black Friday impact could linger on the markets in the coming week·        The 1939 points correction in Sensex and 568 points fall in Nifty hinted atdelivery selling and trade unwinding
·        Trading halt on NSE last week could make leveraged positions wary·        This was a major factor on Friday and could linger in the coming week unless there is clarity from NSE
·        MTAR IPO is expected to open on 03-Mar after strong anchor demand·        The relatively small IPO is a niche play on precision products and oversubscription will be the key
·        Markets will await details of auto numbers for the Feb-21 month·        It remains to be seen if the momentum of the Dec-20 quarter and Jan month can be sustained in Feb-21
·        FPI selling of Rs.8500 crore on Friday will be a major concern·        Markets will keep a watch on this week to see if the FPI trajectory shifts in the month of March 2021
·        Big story in the coming week will be how bond yields pan out·        Spike in US and India bond yields spooked markets and RBI action on capping yields at 6% will be tested
·        High frequency PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services will be in focus·        This will be critical to assess if the momentum of the past few months can be sustained in March 2021
·        The joker in the pack could be Syria, Iran and crude oil prices·        Crude prices assume importance, especially after the air strikes by the US on Iranian targets on Thursday
·        Key data points from the US, Europe and Asia will be of interest·        Big focus on US bond yields, FOMC member speak, PMI, US Redbook, EU retail sales, Chinese Manufacturing

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