Weekly Triggers ( Mar 08 – Mar 12)

weekly 3 Weekly Triggers ( Mar 08   Mar 12)

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·        Markets close in positive for the week but Friday fall was sharp·        The fall on Friday has been a trend that is repeating and could impact sentiments despite VIX falling to 21 levels
·        Coronavirus cases spurt back to over 16,000 a day in Maharashtra·        This is slightly disconcerting news as Maharashtra is already talking about renewed lockdowns in Mumbai
·        Crude oil prices at near $70/bbl could be a critical factor·        Indian markets have been worried about rising crude and anything above $70/bbl could be macro negative
·        Big string of IPOs are expected during the coming week·        Big IPOs for the week Craftsman Automation, Nazara, Suryoday SFB, Kalyan Jewellers and Laxmi Organic
·        The coming week is also likely to see 2 big IPO listings·        MTAR Technologies listing on 15 March and Easy Trip listing towards the end of the week will gauge appetite
·        FPIs buy Rs.1127 crore in the week and Rs.3328 crore a month to date·        The FPI buying momentum has been tapering in the last few weeks, especially since the second half of February
·        Markets are likely to react to the CPI inflation and IIP numbers·        On Friday, CPI came in higher at 5.03% and IIP at -1.6% hinting that RBI accommodation may continue for now
·        WPI manufacturing and overall data to be critical on 15th March·        With rising CPI, a higher WPI will be positive as it hints at manufacturers getting better price realizations
·        Markets will await the FOMC meet the outcome on 17 March·        While no change is expected, markets anticipate hints of taper as well as likely trajectory of Fed rate hikes
·        Trade data details to be announced on Monday 15 March·        While the lower trade deficit figure is known, markets will be more interested in components of exports
·        Implications of the new eCommerce policy will also be a key factor·        Ahead of elections, the government may look to please the offline retailers with restrictions on e-tailers
·        Markets to be positive if SEBI puts new AT1 bond rules on hold·        That is likely to happen at the insistence of MOF and that would avoid disruptions for MFs and Banks
·        Government to announce Rs.14,500 crore capital support for PCA banks·        This is likely to be positive for stressed PSU banks like UCO Bank and Central Bank of India among others
·        Key data points from the US, Europe and Asia will be of interest·        Big focus on US FOMC meet, BOJ meet, US retail sales, US industrial output, Japan trade, US housing stats

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