Weekly Triggers (Mar 22 – Mar 27)

weekly 4 Weekly Triggers (Mar 22   Mar 27)

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·        Sensex corrects close to 934 points during the week gone by·        However, markets will take confidence from the sharp 1200 points bounce from lower levels on Friday
·        US Bond yields continued to rally despite the FOMC dovishness·        The bond yields continued to rally in the US to 1.74% as markets had doubts over rates if inflation rallied
·        Big short term concern could be a rise in COVID cases in India·        The average daily COVID cases are getting back to 2020 levels and the vaccination pace has been slow
·        Indian bond yields also closed at a 1-year high of 6.18% on Friday·        This is a worry as it hints at a likely rate hike by the RBI or at least repudiation of the accommodative stance
·        The big IPO action in the coming week would be Barbeque Nation·        The Rs.453 crore IPO will be a test of the attractiveness of the QSR model and also watched for oversubscription
·        Four major IPO listings in the week will set the listing trend next week·        Anupam Rasayan, Laxmi Organic, Kalyan Jewellers and Craftsman Automation are all slated for listing this week
·        FPI flows stay volatile but remain positive for March so far·        FPIs infused Rs.5984 crore during the week and Rs.9000 crore in May, largely only due to the FT Index revamp
·        Fall in Brent Crude prices from $70/bbl to $65/bbl will be a relief·        However, oil traders expect the rally to resume once the US inventories are factored into calculations
·        Key announcements on Perpetual Bonds will be watched·        The selling by mutual funds in AT-1 bonds resulted in negative yield in some cases raising macro concerns
·        On a positive note, the VIX for the week has toned down sharply·        VIX fell from 26 levels last week down to 19.9 levels hinting that downsides on Nifty could be limited
·        Maximum put writing seen in 14,500 strike and 15,500 calls·        Clearly, the accumulation appears to hint at lesser downsides and more upsides to the market
·        The markets will await the big PSU dividends in the coming week·        We have seen big dividends from PSU like NALCO, NMDC, GAIL, IOCL, BPCL, and HUDCO to date
·        Key data points from the US macros will be of interest·        Big focus on US home sales, Powell testimony, Markit PMI, Q4 GDP, initial jobless claims and spending data
·        Key data points from Europe and Asia will be keenly watched·        Major focus on Euro PMI Manufacturing and Euro PMI Services as well as BOJ meet and JIBUN PMI data

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