Weekly Triggers (Mar 29 – Apr 02)

%name Weekly Triggers (Mar 29   Apr 02)

Trigger for the WeekHow will it impact?
·        Markets closed the week strong on Biden’s $2.3 trillion infra package·        That is likely to be the continued theme for the coming week also as it is likely to provide support to Nifty
·        Auto sales numbers for passenger vehicles came in strong for March·        This is an important indicator since automobiles account as the single biggest manufacturing sector in India
·        Tractor sales up 240% yoy for Mar-21 and 22% for FY21·        While March may be a low-base case, the full year tractor sales hint at a good week for tractor stocks
·        Rising COVID cases remain a worry for the Indian markets·        With COVID cases back at Sep-20 highs and growing much faster, there are fears at higher market levels
·        US bond yields continue to remain elevated above 1.72%·        Despite Fed assurances on rates, bond markets still believe that Fed would hike rates, which is a headwind
·        Domestic investors infused Rs.4,000 crore during the week in equities·        While this compensated for the absence of FPIs, this is attributed to year-end NAV related buying

 

·        The big watch is the RBI policy on April 07 on rates and stance·        RBI expected to maintain status quo on rates and stance but MPC language and inflation outlook hold the key
·        March quarter and FY21 full year earnings season kicks off·        The early cues on earnings expectations will start this week, although the deluge of earnings will come later
·        Markets to react to core sector and anticipate Markit PMI·        Core sector at -4.6% was disappointing, so markets will await for positive cues from PMI Manufacturing
·        Two important IPO action points will be watched in the week·        Barbecue Nation IPO lists on 07 April amidst weak GMP and Macrotech Rs.2500 crore IPO open on same day
·        Nifty put/call accumulation range moves up marginally·        The new indicative range is 14,500/15,200, which hints at improved sentiments compared to last week
·        Despite the markets showing huge volatility, VIX trended to 20 levels·        This is a good signal for markets and hints that it could be a long-term consolidation close to support levels
·        Key data points from the US macros will be watched this week·        Big focus on US Markit PMI, March Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims, PPI and inventories

 

·        Key data points fromEurope and Asia will be keenly watched·        Major focus on China PMI, Inflation; Japan PMI and consumer confidence, ECB Monetary Policy and Feb PPI

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